№2 (31) / 2026 Full issue

Release Date 25.05.2026

 ECONOMIC THEORY

 

 

 

Plushchevskaya Yulia

Ph.D. (Economics), leading researcher

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, (Moscow)

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https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2073-8017

 

KONDRATIEV WAVES AS PHASES OF ARRIGHI'S SYSTEMIC CYCLES OF ACCUMULATION: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND EMPIRICAL VERIFICATION

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Giovanni Arrighi's theory of systemic cycles of accumulation offers significant potential for analyzing long-term trends in the development of the world economy and Russia's place within it. However, it does not provide a quantitative description of long-term global capital accumulation, which hinders its practical application. A synthesis with the empirical findings of other long-wave theories could help to overcome this limitation. This study assesses the compatibility of secular systemic cycles with half-century Kondratiev waves. The problem formulation is based on Arrighi's idea of two stages of capital expansion. The shared perception in Arrighi's and Kondratiev's theories – that long-term cycles represent a manifestation of capitalist accumulation – creates the theoretical framework for this synthesis. Our hypothesis is that the source of the century-long cycle lies in the evolution of money capital in nominal terms, whereas the half-century phases stem from mechanisms of real accumulation. These initial premises determined the selection of indicators, analytical tools, and methodology. The century and half-century cycles in the British and American accumulation regimes were identified by the intensity of the processes that determine capital dynamics. The continuous wavelet transform was applied to estimate the time and frequency characteristics of series spanning three centuries. The decomposition of nominal interest rates in Britain and the United States supports the hypothesis of a century-long cycle of nominal capital accumulation, while evidence of half-century Kondratiev waves in real accumulation differs between the two countries. In the American systemic cycle, material and financial expansion of capital can be discerned from wavelet decomposition components of energy and foreign trade indicators; in the British case, real interest rates serve this purpose. The trade balance proved to be a universal indicator of phase transitions. Expanding the set of capital accumulation indicators and advancing the methodology for identifying long-term cycles constitute an important direction for future research.

 

Keywords: systemic cycle of accumulation, G. Arrighi, Kondratiev waves, continuous wavelet transform

JEL: B41, E3, F00, P10

UDC: 338.12

DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2026_2_46_67

 

© Yu. Plushchevskaya, 2026

© Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences «Issues of Theoretical Economics», 2026

 

Acknowledgments: The research was conducted under the State Assignment Topic «Institutional foundations and reproduction factors of the Russian economy for the transition to the economy of development».

The author gratefully acknowledges A. Kalinin, S. Kirdina-Chandler, S. Malkov, V. Mayevskiy, P. Orekhovskiy, A. Yermolov for their insightful and fruitful discussions of the estimates that are part of the article. All errors are the sole responsibility of the author.

 

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Manuscript submission date: 09.02.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 19.03.2026

 

For citation: Plushchevskaya Yu. Kondratiev Waves As Phases of Arrighi’s Systemic Cycles of Accumulation: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Verification // Voprosy teoreticheskoy ekonomiki. 2026. No. 2. Pp. 46–67. DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2026_2_46_67.