Print
№2 (31) / 2026 Full issue

Release Date 25.05.2026

 ECONOMIC THEORY

 

 

 

Zaostrovtsev Andrey

PhD (economics), professor

National Research University – Higher School of Economics (St. Petersburg), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0302-4182

 

THE COLLAPSE OF LIBERAL MODERNIZATION AND THE CHALLENGE OF «RUSSIAN MATRIX»

Размер файла26-45
Размер файла 381 KB
  License Creative Commons 4.0 
 JATS XML

This article examines the conceptual and factual failure of liberal modernization in the contemporary era. Transitology, so influential in the 1990s, has faded into oblivion. The Western model has failed to take hold in many post-socialist countries. In terms of democratization, the gap between Russia and the countries that adopted this model has become radical. At the same time, the West has begun to lose the qualities inherent in classical liberalism. They are being supplanted by new institutions designed to destroy the rule of law and, more broadly, its cultural identity. Against the backdrop of this decline, a new image of the system of traditional Russian fundamental institutions, known as the "Russian matrix," has begun to emerge in the 21st century. Through these institutions, Russia, as a local form of global forced civilization, has challenged the latter's alternative form—the legal one. At the core of this is the key component of this matrix, which defines its objective function: institutional expansionism. The other components of the messianic task are subordinated to its fulfillment: power-property and the rent-class social order. Long-term public opinion polls in Russia convincingly demonstrate that the legitimacy of the social system is high, since every attempt to practically fulfill this task through the conflict with Ukraine generates stable and long-term support in the form of recognition that the country is on the right path.

 

Keywords: liberal modernization, transitology, institutions, civilizations, the West, «Russian matrix», messianism, institutional expansionism, legitimacy

JEL: N00, O10, O43

UDC: 330.341, 316.012

DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2026_2_26_45

 

© A. Zaostrovtsev, 2026

© Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences «Issues of Theoretical Economics», 2026

 

REFERENCES

  1. Beek J. van de et al (2024). The Long-Term Fiscal Impact of Immigrants in the Netherlands, Differentiated by Motive, Source Region and Generation // IZA DP. No. 17569. 

  2. Berdyaev N.I. (2017). Russia and  the New World Era. — M.: Publishing House «E». (In Russ.).

  3. Boaz D. (2004). Libertarianism: History, Principles, Politics — Chelyabinsk: Socium. (In Russ.).

  4. Boettke P. J., Coyne Ch. J., Leeson P. T. (2008). Institutional stickiness and the new development economics //American Journal of Economics and Sociology. Vol. 67. No. 2. Pp. 331-358. DOI:10.1111/j.1536-7150.2008.00573.x

  5. Boettke P. J., Coyne Ch. J., Leeson P. T. (2013). Comparative historical political Economy // Journal of Institutional Economics. Vol. 9. No. 3. Pp. 285-301. DOI:10.1017/S1744137413000088.

complete reference list

close list

  1. Burton D. (2024). ESG, DEI and What to Do About Them // HERITAGE URL: https://www.heritage.org/progressivism/report/esg-dei-and-what-do-about-them (access date: 24.03.2026).

  2. Coppedge M. et al. (2026). V-Dem Methodology v.16. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. URL: https://www.v-dem.net/documents/71/methodology_v16.pd

  3. Danilevskyi I.N. (2025). Intellectuals of Ancient Rus': The Rise of the Temptation of Russian Messianism. — M.: New Literary Review. (In Russ.).

  4. Democracy in Decline? (2016). L. Diamond, M. Plattner (eds.). — Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

  5. Democracy Index 2024. (2024). What’s Wrong with Representative Democracy? URL: https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2024/

  6. Eatwell R., Goodwin M.  (2018). National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy. — London: Pelican Books.

  7. Giddens A., Sutton Ph. (2021). Essential Concepts in Sociology — M.: Higher School of Economics Press. (In Russ.).

  8. Goldberg J. (2012). Liberal Fascism. — M.: Reed Group. (In Russ.).

  9. Holmes S., Krastev I. (2019). The Light that Failed: A Reckoning. — New York: Allen Lane.

  10. Inglehart R., Welzel Ch. (2011). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy. The Human Development Sequence — M.: Novoye Izdatelstvo. (In Russ.).

  11. Inglehart R. (2018). Cultural Evolution: How People’s Motivatios are Changing and How this is Changing the World.  — M.: Mysl'. (In Russ.).

  12. Kharichev D.A. (2025a). Russian Civilization // Notebook of Civic Education. No. 7. Pp. 4-10. (In Russ.).

  13. Kharichev D.A. (2025b). Who are We? // The State. Iss. 2. Pp. 16-25. (In Russ.).

  14. Kirdina S.G. (2014). Institutional  Matrices  and Russia’s Development: An Introduction to X-Y Theory. — M., St. Petersburg: Nestor-History. (In Russ.).

  15. Korotaev S.A., Shkaratan O.I. (2017). Post-Soviet Statehool and Society. Part 1. Evolution of the Social Contract and the Legitimacy of Authority // Social Sciences and Modernity. No. 4. Pp. 130–140. (In Russ.).

  16. Kuran T. (2009). Explaining the Economic Trajectories of Civilizations: The Systemic Approach // Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Vol. 71. Iss. 3. Pp. 593-605. DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2009.03.005.

  17. Lal D. (2010). In Praise of Empires. Globalization and Order. — M.: Novoye Izdatelstvo. (In Russ.).

  18. Levitsky S.,  Ziblatt D. (2018). How Democracies Die: What History Reveals About Our Future. — New York: Penguin.

  19. Lindberg S.I. (2026). Fifty Years of the Third Wave(s): from Democratization to Autocratization // Democratization (on-line journal).  DOI: 10.1080/13510347.2026.261513

  20. Luce E. (2017). The Retreat of Western Liberalism. — London: Little, Brown.

  21. Mair P. (2013). Ruling the Void: The Hollowing of Western Democracy. — London: Verso.

  22. Martyanov V.S. (2016). Rent-class Transformation of Russian Society // Neprikosnovenny zapas. No. 5. Pp. 106–124. (In Russ.).

  23. Marx K., Engels F. (1955). The Communist Manifesto / Marx K., Engels F. (1955).Collected Works.V.4. — M.: Politizdat. Pp.419-459. (In Russ.).

  24. Maslovskii M.V. (2025a). Civilizational Analysis, Theories of Multiple Modernities and the Models of Globalization // Sociological Journal. Vol. 31. No. 1. Pp. 9–24. DOI: 10.19181/socjour.2025.31.1.1 (In Russ.).

  25. Maslovskii M.V. (2025b). The Debate on the Civilizational Approach: Essentialism, Constructivism and Contemporary Historical Sociology // Sociological Studies. No. 5. pp. 80–89. DOI: 10.31857/S0132162525050077 (In Russ.).

  26. Mises L. von (2007). Theory and History. An Interpretation of Social and Economic Evolution. — Chelyabinsk: Socium. (In Russ.).

  27. Nefedov S.A. (2006). The Mongol conquests and the formation of Russian civilization // Questions of History. No. 2. Pp. 113–123. (In Russ.).

  28. Nord M., Altman D., Fernandes T., God A.G., Lindberg S.I. (2026). Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling the Democratic Era? University of Gothenburg: V-D. URL: https://www.v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf

  29. O'Donnell G., Schmitter Ph. (1986). Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. — Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press.

  30. Osipov A. (2023) Farmers against Greens // Vedomosti. March 22. (In Russ.).

  31. Pelipenko A.A. (2014). Code to the «Russian Matrix» // Vlast. No. 2. Pp. 58–65. (In Russ.).

  32. Przeworski A. (2019). Crises of Democracy. — Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  33. Russia as a Civilization: Food for Thought (2015). O.I. Shkaratan, V.N. Leksin, G.A. Yastrebov (Eds). — M.: Editorial Board of the journal «World of Russia». (In Russ.).

  34. Russian Modernization: Conditions, Prerequisites, Chances. (2009). Collection of articles and materials. Iss. 1. Strategic Problems of Modernization. Iss. 2. Social Aspects of Modernization — M.: Center for Post-Industrial Society Studies. (In Russ.).

  35. Sarazzin T. (2012). Germany Self-liquidation. — M.: Reed Group. (In Russ.).

  36. Schmitter Ph. (2013). Reflections on 'transitology' — Before and After // Otechestvennye zapiski. No. 6. URL: https://www.strana-oz.ru/2013/6/razmyshleniya-o-tranzitologii-ranshe-i-teper#_ftn2 (In Russ.).

  37. Sharov V.A. (2009). The Temptation of Revolution (Russian Supreme Power). — M.: Arsis Books. (In Russ.).

  38. Shusharin D. (2021). Russian Totalitarism. Liberty Here and Now — M.: Izdatelskie Resheniya. (In Russ.).

  39. Transition Report (1994) / European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. October. URL: https://www.ebrd.com/home/news-and-events/publications/economics/transition-reports.html#

  40. Travin D. (2018). Why Are They Looking for the Special Way…that Doesn’t Exist? // The «Special Path» of the Country: Myths and Reality / A.V. Obolonsky (Ed). — Moscow: Mysl'. Pp. 55-120. (In Russ.).

  41. Travin D. Ya. (2019). The Steep Mountains of the XXI Century: Postmodernization and Russia’s Problems, — St. Petersburg: Press of the European University at St. Petersburg. (In Russ.).

  42. Travin D., Margania O. (2004). European Modernization: In 2 vol. Vol 1. — Moscow, St. Petersburg: AST, Terra Fantastica. (In Russ.).

  43. Vasil’tsov K.S. (2020). Dar al-Islam / Dar al-Harb: Categories of Space in Medieval Islam // Islam Studies. Vol. 11, No. 3, Pp. 69–80. DOI: 10.21779/2077-8155-2020-11-4-69-80 (In Russ.).

  44. Wolf M. (2023). The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. — London: Allen Lane.

  45. Yakovlev A.A. (2021). Variety of Capitalism Concept: Application to Russia // Voprosy Teoreticheskoi Ekonomiki. No. 4. Pp. 41-49. DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2021_4_41_49 (In Russ.).

  46. Yanov A.L. (2017). The Debate on «Eternal Autocracy»: From Ivan the Terrible to Putin. — Moscow: Novy Khronograf. (In Russ.).

  47. Yanovskiy K., Zhavoronkov S. (2026). Conservatism: Unlearned Lessons — M., Chelyabinsk. Socium. (In Russ.).

  48. Yasin E.G. Russian Modernization. Reports from 10 Conferences: In 2 books. — M.: HSE Publishing House

  49. Zaostrovtsev A.P. (2020). The Modernization Debate: Common Road or Special Ways? — St. Petersburg: Press of the European University at St. Petersburg. (In Russ.).

  50. Zaostrovtsev A.P. (2024). Welfare State: Generosity or Predatory? // Voprosy Theoretical Economics. No. 4. Pp. 22–44. DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2024_4_22_44 (In Russ.).

 

  

Manuscript submission date: 01.04.2026

Manuscript acceptance date: 09.04.2026

 

For citation: Zaostrovtsev A. The Collapse of Liberal Modernization and the Challenge of «Russian Matrix» // Voprosy teoreticheskoy ekonomiki. 2026. No. 2. Pp. 26–45. DOI: 10.52342/2587-7666VTE_2026_2_26_45